Downtown Lewisburg Retail Market Assesment (2004) First Stage Report DOWNTOWN LEWISBURG RETAIL TRADE AREA According to the Lewisburg Downtown Business Survey, 49.5% of downtown’s customer base comes from Lewisburg. For the purposes of this survey, Lewisburg is defined as that area within the 17837 zip code. This zip code area includes Lewisburg Borough, Kelly Township, East Buffalo Township, and eastern Buffalo Township. The Susquehanna Valley region is a predominantly rural area with small-town urban pockets. Shopping allegiances are formed dependent upon where people live and work. In Lewisburg’s case, shopping patterns follow zip code lines closely. According to the 2000 Claritas Site Report, a total of 185 retail trade businesses exist in the 17837 zip code. There are 64 engaged in Miscellaneous Retail businesses, 40 dealing in Dining or Drinking, 19 in Automobile and Gas, 19 in Furniture and Home Furnishings*, 18 in Unprepared Food, 15 in Home Improvement, 8 in Apparel, and 2 in General Merchandise. A strong cluster of 65 specialty retail businesses currently exists in downtown Lewisburg. Of these, 29 deal in Miscellaneous Retail, 14 in Dining and Drinking, 9 in Furniture and Home Furnishings*, 6 in Unprepared Food, 6 in Apparel, 1 in Home Improvement, and none in General Merchandise or Automobile and Gas. Just over a third of the county’s retail trade businesses are located in downtown Lewisburg. A proportionate number of the county’s Dining or Drinking, Furniture and Home Furnishings*, and Unprepared Food businesses are located in downtown Lewisburg. Downtown Lewisburg hosts significantly fewer Home Improvement, and no General Merchandise and Automobile and Gas businesses but significantly more Apparel and Miscellaneous Retail businesses than the zip code area overall. TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHICS AND TRENDS The 17837 Lewisburg zip code defines this area. Growth and decline comparisons are made between 1990 Census data and current data projections as of September 24, 2000. Population The year 2000 estimated population for the area is 29,455 residents. Approximately 56% of the area population is male and 44% female. Over the past ten years, the area population grew by 12.2%, compared to 10.4% growth in the United States. Over the next five years, area population is expected to decline .4%, while 4.5% population growth is expected nationally. The number of area households projected for 2000 is 5,569, a decrease of .7%, compared to a 12.2% projected increase for the United States as a whole. Over the next five years, area households are expected to decrease .3% compared to 5.5% expected growth nationally. 47% of the area population is married; 69% of the area population is rural, 31% urban; 35.64% travel under ten minutes to work or work at home; 53.2% travel 10 to 29 minutes to work; 70.3% drive alone. Income Over the ten-year period, average area income levels grew by 28.9%, from $37,982 to $48, 947, compared to a 53.3% growth for the United States. Average income levels in the area are expected to grow by 11.2% over the next five years, compared to 20.4% growth for the United States. The current area per capita income is $16,069, compared to a national figure of $22,433. Education In the area, 33.9% of the population twenty-five and over graduated from high school, 12.5% hold a Bachelor’s Degree only, and 12.7% hold a Graduate Degree. Nationally, 13.1% of the population has earned a Bachelor’s Degree only, while 7.2% hold a Graduate Degree. Employment 59% of the area workforce hold White Collar occupations (58% nationally); 24% hold Blue Collar (26% nationally); 20.1% are in the “Professional Specialty” category (14.1% nationally); 15.27% are employed in “Administrative Support”; 11.2% are in “Executive and Managerial” occupations (12.3% nationally). Housing Most of the dwellings in the area (67.3%) are owner occupied, whereas nationally the percentage is similar (64%). 18.94% of the dwellings in the area were built between 1970 and 1979. Many (33%) were built in 1939 or earlier. Nationally, when dwellings are counted by date of construction, the largest percentage (21.7%) were built between 1970 and 1979. The median property value in the area is $75,382. DOWNTOWN LEWISBURG RETAIL TRADE AREA DEMAND The per capita income of $16,069 of the area population (29,455 residents in 2000) results in an estimated total income of $473 million for downtown Lewisburg’s Trade Area in 2000. Total retail trade for the Lewisburg zip code area for 2000 is estimated at $129 million. Estimates of retail trade potential in the categories represented by downtown Lewisburg business mix are as follows: Food stores $19 million Eating and Drinking $18 million Home Improvement $9 million General Merchandise $8 million Furniture and Home Furnishings* $4 million Apparel and Accessories $2 million RETAIL PERFORMANCE for the Lewisburg zip code Actual retail sales for the Lewisburg zip code area in 1998 were $241,925,000. Consumers spent a total of $241,925,000 on retail goods and services at businesses in the Lewisburg zip code area in 1998. Total retail sales in the area are projected to increase 20% by year 2003 to $290,310,000. Each household in downtown Lewisburg’s trade area spent an average of $35,959 on retail goods and services in 1998. This report finds the demand for retail goods and services by multiplying average household retail sales expenditures by the number of households in the downtown Lewisburg trade area. The estimated trade area demand for retail goods and services (or potential retail sales) is $200,311,361. By comparing the actual retail sales of the area businesses to the potential retail sales for the downtown Lewisburg trade area, this report gauges the area’s effectiveness at meeting retail demand. The area is currently meeting retail demand and has captured an estimated surplus of $416,136.39 in 2000. This surplus estimate is conservative in that it was calculated without any projection for average household retail sales expenditure growth from 1998 to 2000 Future Action This report will be shared with businesses, the community and partners for feedback and a chance for collaboration before the market analysis teams move into the second stage analysis work. The area retail surplus supports the committee’s estimate that the Lewisburg zip code area is a regional center for retail goods and services. Future work will determine the extent that visitor and employee expenditures influence actual retail sales, how marketing efforts can best position Lewisburg as a regional retail center and the effect of the Route 15 bypass on the central business district and the region. Since a strong retail sales cluster exists in downtown Lewisburg, the LEWISBURG DOWNTOWN PARTNERSHIP will make every effort to attract additional retail businesses to downtown and to encourage retail use where feasible on first floor business locations in the downtown. Retail sales demand and potential will be analyzed by retail sales categories to determine where gaps occur in the market (retail gap analysis). Future business recruiting efforts will be based on filling those gaps. While the trade area meets demand, downtown Lewisburg is only one retail center within that area. Marketing and promotion efforts in the future will be based on working cooperatively and competing fairly with other retail goods and service providers in the area. Notes * The Home Furnishings retail category includes home appliances and galleries in this report. Demographic data has been compiled from 1990 US Census and Claritas 2000, Inc. reports. 2000 Market Analysis team of the LEWISBURG DOWNTOWN PARTNERSHIP Business Support and Development Committee includes Carl Milofsky (chair), Bo Cole, Brenda Fisher, Bill Moore, Sharon Poff, and Leslie Velz. Thanks to DCED for the Main Street Grant that supports this project and for funding the assistance of the Pennsylvania Downtown Center. PDC supplied technical support and purchased data for this project.